“If these poll results hold, the first person Bob Menendez should thank in his election night victory speech is Donald Trump,” said Murray. The poll finds that 72% of likely voters say that Trump is a very important factor in their Senate choice, with Trump opponents (84%) being more likely than Trump supporters (71%) to feel this way. ![]() Trump gets a negative job rating of 42% approve and 55% disapprove from likely New Jersey voters. And when it comes to casting a vote in the Senate contest, a majority (56%) say that their views of Trump are more important than their views of Menendez (31%). New Jersey’s senior senator does not earn great ratings from his constituents, but he is certainly in better standing than the president. Murray added, “I bet the Democrat’s Senate Majority PAC wishes it could take back the $3 million being spent in New Jersey right now.” This is Monmouth’s first, and only, likely voter poll of the Garden State’s Senate contest. But the incumbent has been able to fight back to get the margin into a range that is closer to the norm for New Jersey,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. Hugin was successful in making this one competitive by hammering away at Menendez’s ethical baggage. “Given the national political climate and the big registration advantage enjoyed by Democrats, you might expect an incumbent senator from New Jersey to be up by 20 points. As a point of comparison, the Democratic candidates in the last three statewide contests each won their respective races by 14 points (2017 governor, 2016 president, 2014 U.S. All leads in the current likely voter models are statistically significant. A model projecting lower overall turnout also shows Menendez with a comfortable lead of 51% to 39%. The incumbent’s lead expands to 50%-39% using a model that incorporates a turnout surge in Democratic areas of the state. Hugin actually has the advantage among white voters without a college degree (49%-41%), but this group comprises fewer than 4-in-10 likely voters in New Jersey. Menendez also has a slight 48%-45% lead among white voters with a college degree. The largest group of undecided voters is comprised of those from Latino, black, Asian and other non-white backgrounds (17%), with whom the incumbent has a formidable 63%-19% lead otherwise. The remaining 8% of likely voters are undecided. Each receives 1% support while a generic “some other candidate” – there are an additional four names on the ballot – also receives 1%. The poll also included Libertarian Murray Sabrin and the Green Party’s Madelyn Hoffman among the list of named candidates. Menendez currently holds a 49% to 40% lead over Hugin among likely voters using Monmouth’s standard midterm turnout model. Regardless of how they feel about Menendez, voters say that President Donald Trump is ultimately a bigger factor in their choice for Senate. While voters tend to hold a negative view of the Democratic incumbent, most feel that the behavior that led to his recent trial was probably no worse than what most other politicians do. Senate, according to the latest Monmouth University Poll. And that’s what is resonating with the people of New Jersey,” he said in a recent radio appearance.West Long Branch, NJ – Bob Menendez holds a lead of between 9 and 12 points over Bob Hugin in the former’s bid for a third full term in the U.S. Hugin frequently cited the allegations against Menendez as a reason the Democratic hold on the state should end. ![]() At the beginning of 2018, the Department of Justice dismissed all of his remaining charges. Last year’s corruption trial ended in mistrial in November of 2017 when the jurors were unable to reach a verdict. Menendez, the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has been hampered by favorability ratings in the 30s. Senate race presents the most depressing choice for New Jersey voters in a generation, with two awful candidates whose most convincing argument is that the other guy is unfit to serve,” the editorial board wrote. Indeed, the editorial board of the Newark Star-Ledger, in its endorsement of Menendez, urged voters to “choke it down” and vote for him. “I think that voters in general are thinking more about the balance of power and thinking more about their opinions towards Trump than, necessarily, the individual factors within the New Jersey Senate race,” she said.
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